Industry Dynamics
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The first half of 2013 China's chemical fiber industry needs to show signs of improvement
The first half of 2013 , China's macroeconomic structural adjustment in the background , plus run cyclical factors chemical fiber industry , the industry production gradually cooling , yields decline increases. While reducing the growth rate of the industry structure adjustment in the market to continue in-depth guide . Although the overall operating pressures still exist, but also from the demand to see signs of recovery on the operating rate and other indicators .
In this industry generally cautious attitude, somewhat fuzzy feature short season , so even though in June entered the off-season in the traditional sense , but the market is still trading volume can be maintained at a considerable level . We can say that the overall trend of weak chemical prices unchanged, but the performance exceeded expectations , but also to the industry for the smooth operation of the market were more confident .
Operating pressure lingering output growth dropped
Production increased by only 5.84% , the growth rate down . Completion of a table from 1 to 6 months can analyze chemical fiber production capacity , China's chemical fiber output growth dropped significantly in the first half . As of the end of June , China's total output of 19.9 million tons of chemical fiber , an increase of only 5.84% , the growth rate dropped 8.73 percentage points over last year . Among them, the largest varieties of polyester production 15,714,600 tons , an increase of only 6.26% , accounting for 87.55% of total production of synthetic fibers , fiber accounted for 78.97% of total production .
Due to the growth in demand for textile fibers mainly rely on to support fiber , chemical fiber production in recent years, and therefore remained in the double-digit growth rate. 2008 outbreak of the world economic crisis in China's chemical fiber output growth dropped to below 5%, chemical fiber industry, the rapid recovery in 2009 , two years after the chemical fiber production to maintain 15% growth rate down , but because of the chemical fiber industry has formed the basis of a large -scale Therefore the growth rate of production will inevitably decline.
Operating rate is lower than last year. The main sub-sectors from fiber started to analyze the situation , chemical fiber industry, the overall operating rate in the second quarter compared with the first quarter has improved, especially in spandex industry operating rate increased significantly , but the polyester industry operating rate was significantly lower than last year.
Spandex prices thriving. Analysis of price changes from January to June mainly raw materials and chemical products varieties, varieties prices have dropped about 10% , which MEG ( inner disk ) prices reached a maximum of 20.59% , the only rise in east China 40D spandex prices, 6 % gain.
Reduce imports of synthetic fiber raw materials . By the end of June , China's total imports of 6,901,700 tons of chemical fiber raw materials , down 20.07% . Which , PTA, CPL imports fell sharply by nearly 50 %, respectively , this is due to the country achieved a breakthrough in the development of raw materials , the second is due to the rapid development of the domestic viscose fiber industry increased the demand for raw materials. The same period , imports of 991,900 tons of synthetic fiber raw materials , an increase of 10.62% , significantly reducing fiber raw materials imports.
Exports increased slightly . By the end of June, China exported 1,247,600 tons of chemical fiber , up a slight increase of 2.13% . Sub-species analysis, polyester filament maximum export volume reached 585,100 tons , accounting for 46.9% of total exports of chemical fiber ; polyester staple export 329,500 tons , accounting for 26.41% of total exports ; spandex shows a strong competitive edge , substantial growth in export volume 21.88% , a slight increase in exports of whole fiber .
Meanwhile, the main export market share from the fiber sheet analysis, China's chemical fiber are the major export markets of Turkey , the United States , Pakistan, Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia. Among them, Turkey, the United States and Pakistan, the proportion of exports reached 11.37% , 10.41% and 9.58% . Chemical exports to Vietnam increased significantly the number of 57.51% , accounting for 7.23 percent of total exports of China's chemical fiber , an increase of 2.54 percentage points.
Margins fell slightly. 1 to May , chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 6.991 billion yuan , up from -14.4 % year on year growth in the first quarter to 6.16% ; loss of enterprises also declined slightly by 4.22% , but the industry loss has widened to 30.59 percent . Polyester Industry gross profit increased substantially reduced 34.74% , while the spandex industry out of the doldrums is up to two years , with good profits from the entire industry, chemical industry profits increased slightly , losses declined slightly.
From the species point of view , profit margins shrink polyester filament , nylon relatively stable profitability , fluctuations in the profit and loss line of polyester staple fiber , spandex appear turnaround situation, viscose staple fiber is also showing signs of recovery .
From 1 to May run quality situation of chemical fiber industry , the profit margin is only 2.4% , down 0.12 percentage points , 0.94 percentage points lower than the 2012 annual average profit margin ( 3.34% ) .
Overall inventory pressure. First quarter, chemical industry inventory pressure, to April , with the arrival of a small peak season , most chemical digestion of a certain species of inventory , inventory declined, but polyester staple fiber and nylon inventory pressures remain particularly prominent , spandex inventory down to low. Overall inventory pressure.
Pull gently to enhance macro- demand slowdown
Macroeconomic slowdown . The first half of 2013 China's macroeconomic trends did not continue to rebound the end of 2012 , but there unintended fall. GDP grew 7.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points over the first half of last year ; five , above -scale enterprises in June industrial added value growth fell ; manufacturing PMI index fell in June near the ups and downs of the watershed , and February data with nearly 9 month low , various data indicate that future economic downside risks continue to exist .
'Season'Demand has some amplification. From 2012 to 2013 Zhejiang loom boot load variation analysis , China's chemical fiber industry downstream operation rate over the same period last year, three in April , 'the traditional peak season',though not as expected , but modest modest recovery in end demand is still there , the downstream operation rate gradually rose to more than 7 percent , the data also shows that in the past off-season in July is not short off .
Since polyester fiber , especially the rapid expansion of production capacity and release , chemical fiber cloth textile city this year is higher than in previous years, the overall trading volume in this industry generally cautious attitude, somewhat fuzzy feature short season , so even though in June into the traditional season sense, market trading volume is still able to maintain at a considerable level .
Raw material price volatility . February and April of this year, crude oil market depth adjustment in two waves , declines were about 10%, fell below 90 U.S. dollars / barrel, June Syria continued tension and other factors , WTI crude oil exceeded $ 100, PX market after last year 's rally formed a fairly large bubbles, so this year involvement in crude oil fell , weak downstream polyester demand and weak performance of financial markets , the rapid decline since the Spring Festival. 4 to 6 months remained stable. Polyester processing margins changed little, but prices fell for the industrial chain confidence to deal with large, front-end inventory transfer to the industrial chain , resulting in a huge loss of stock chemical enterprise .
Capacity is still in the growth path of inertia . January 2013 , April capacity investment is more concentrated, April filament, film , FBT product production capacity of nearly 140 million tons.
Cotton price support. 2013 cotton prices stable at 19,500 yuan / ton, up and down, because the triangular relationship of polyester , viscose and cotton , to polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber market play a supporting role. Diduan short stick prices, and further expansion of the cotton price difference , so stick textile enterprises increased the short amount Diduan .
The annual production capacity rational regression or growth benefits
Chemical fiber industry first, running the first half of 2013 output growth dropped significantly, on the one hand base, a natural adjustment , on the one hand that the market downturn ; Second, the new capacity rational return , but still in the inertial growth path , especially polyester industry ; Third, the overall quality of the industry run down, but differentiation , some sub-sectors showing signs of recovery . Fourth, to further enhance the self-sufficiency rate of chemical fiber raw materials , but subject PX Polyester industry development , industry profit transfer to the PX further upstream . Fifth, industry self-regulation effect is significant , the contribution of the industry to further improve profits .
The second half of 2013 , subject to the impact of international tensions , oil prices are likely to remain high oscillation , but there are expected easing supply side , it is expected that the crude oil market may be a slight downside in oscillations in the second half of chemical fiber production capacity is still running its peak, the market competition will further intensifies, it is expected that in the third quarter, the traditional peak season demand and high crude oil just oscillation effect , there is a rise in the price of chemical fiber market opportunities , but the adjustment will not be great . Production , the expected annual production 40.5 million tons in 2013 , an increase of about 7%. Exports, the annual export volume is expected in 2013 2.8 million tons , an increase of about 15%. Benefits, expected 2013 full-year profit and last year were flat or increased slightly .